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\par }\pard \ltrpar\ql \li0\ri0\sa150\widctlpar\wrapdefault\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0\pararsid6302573 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1045\langfe1045\langfenp1045\insrsid6302573\charrsid6302573 Popatrzy\'b3
am sobie dzisiaj na notowania gie\'b3dowe Bogdanki i Jastrz\'eabskiej Sp\'f3\'b3ki W\'eaglowej, kt\'f3rych akcje taniej\'b9 i taniej\'b9. O ile jednak Bogdanka (gdy pisz\'ea ten tekst za jeden walor p\'b3aci si\'ea 72,5 z\'b3) ca\'b3y czas jest znacz\'b9
co dro\'bfsza ni\'bf w momencie swojego debiutu w 2009 r. (co po rozbudowie kopalni etc. raczej nie powinno dziwi\'e6), tak cena akcji JSW 12,55 z\'b3 po prostu pora\'bfa. Pomijaj\'b9c fakt, \'bfe cztery lata temu jedna akcja tej sp\'f3\'b3ki wyceniana by
\'b3a na 136 z\'b3, to warto na szybko policzy\'e6, \'bfe przy dzisiejszej wycenie kapitalizacja sp\'f3\'b3ki wynosi\'85niespe\'b3na 1,5 mld z\'b3. Ma\'b3o, prawda? Zw\'b3aszcza, je\'9cli we\'9fmiemy pod uwag\'ea, \'bfe kilka miesi\'eacy temu Jastrz\'ea
bie, kontrolowane przez Skarb Pa\'f1stwa, zosta\'b3o zmuszone do pomocy Kompanii W\'eaglowej i zakupu od niej kopalni Knur\'f3w-Szczyg\'b3owice za niemal 1,5 mld z\'b3. A dzisiaj ca\'b3a firma wyceniana jest przez gie\'b3d\'ea
 na tyle co jej jedna kopalnia. Co\'9c tu jest nie tak?
\par Nie podwa\'bfam absolutnie sensu zakupu Knurowa przez JSW, bo o tym m\'f3wi\'b3o si\'ea od dawna i je\'9cli JSW ma stawia\'e6 na w\'eagiel koksowy \endash  to zakup tej kopalni ma przecie\'bf sens. Do dzi\'9c nie rozumiem wyceny Knurowa i ca\'b3
y czas twierdz\'ea, \'bfe mimo bogatych zasob\'f3w ta wymagaj\'b9ca milionowych inwestycji kopalnia nie by\'b3a warta wi\'eacej ni\'bf 1 mld z\'b3, wi\'eac przynajmniej 500 mln z\'b3 to zawoalowana pomoc publiczna dla Kompanii, ale to mo\'bfe zostawmy.

\par Spadek cen akcji obu tych sp\'f3\'b3ek pokazuje dobitnie, z jak wielkimi k\'b3opotami boryka si\'ea g\'f3rnictwo w\'eagla kamiennego. Lista tych k\'b3opot\'f3w jest naprawd\'ea d\'b3uga. Ja przypomn\'ea tylko, \'bfe zacz\'ea\'b3o si\'ea jak w bajce 
\endash  dawno, dawno temu, ale pa\'f1stwowy w\'b3a\'9cciciel nie robi\'b3 nic, by w por\'ea zareagowa\'e6 i zacz\'b9\'e6 bolesn\'b9, acz nieuniknion\'b9 restrukturyzacj\'ea sektora. Cokolwiek zacz\'ea\'b3o si\'ea dzia\'e6, gdy okaza\'b3o si\'ea, \'bf
e Kompania W\'eaglowa jest po prostu niewyp\'b3acalna. I co? Pieni\'b9dze z JSW przejad\'b3a w kilkana\'9ccie tygodni, problemy ma nadal, a JSW dosta\'b3a rykoszetem. Bogdanka zreszt\'b9 te\'bf, cho\'e6 z innych przyczyn. Nie trzeba chyba przypomina\'e6, 
\'bfe Kompania od wielu tygodni proponuje energetyce \'84promocyjne\'94 ceny w\'eagla, kt\'f3re na \'b3opatki k\'b3ad\'b9 konkurencj\'ea. Chocia\'bf dzisiaj us\'b3ysza\'b3am, \'bfe w\'eagiel po 7 z\'b3 za 1GJ to ju\'bf si\'ea sko\'f1czy\'b3. Teraz b\'ea
dzie troch\'ea dro\'bfej. No zobaczymy. Prezes KW Krzysztof S\'eadzikowski nazywa ceny Kompanii rynkowymi. C\'f3\'bf, konkurencja ma chyba inne zdanie, skoro Bogdanka kolejny raz zg\'b3osi\'b3a spraw\'ea w Urz\'eadzie Ochrony Konkurencji i Konsument\'f3w.

\par Zreszt\'b9 moim zdaniem Kompania sama sobie robi krzywd\'ea, bo gdy faktycznie powstanie co\'9c takiego jak Nowa Kompania W\'eaglowa (czyli KW oczyszczona z kopal\'f1 przekazanych do SRK i sprzedanych, sp\'f3\'b3ka celowa W\'eaglokoksu), to sama zje w\'b3
asny ogon wpadaj\'b9c na ten rynek o kt\'f3rym dzisiaj m\'f3wi \endash  rynek niskich cen. Zw\'b3aszcza, \'bfe nic nie zapowiada zmiany trendu chocia\'bfby w portach ARA, gdzie od pocz\'b9tku kwietnia \'9crednia cena tony nie przekracza 60 dolar\'f3
w, a przed wi\'eakszymi zakupami z importu chroni nas zar\'f3wno drogi dolar, jak i fakt, \'bfe polskie elektrownie (nie myli\'e6 z elektrowniami w Polsce!) po prostu nie mog\'b9 kupowa\'e6 w\'eagla z importu.
\par Ale wr\'f3\'e6my jednak do Jastrz\'eabia, bo tu sytuacja staje si\'ea interesuj\'b9ca. Wed\'b3ug cen jednostkowych akcji warto\'9c\'e6 firmy spad\'b3a w ci\'b9gu 4 lat (w lipcu min\'b9 dok\'b3adnie 4 lata od debiutu JSW) praktycznie dziesi\'ea
ciokrotnie. A tymczasem po debiucie JSW kupi\'b3a sobie koksownie (bo nie dosta\'b3a), kolejn\'b9 kopalni\'ea, przeprowadzi\'b3a ca\'b3kiem sporo inwestycji zar\'f3wno w sektorze koksowniczym, jak i g\'f3rniczym\'85 ja rozumiem, \'bf
e konflikt na linii ex prezes Jaros\'b3aw Zag\'f3rowski \endash  zwi\'b9zki zawodowe nie s\'b3u\'bfy\'b3 wzrostom cen akcji, ale to chyba nie jest jedyny pow\'f3d, \'bfe akcje Jastrz\'eabia a\'bf tak stania\'b3y? A mo\'bfe w 2011 r. by\'b3
y sztucznie drogie \endash  tym bardziej gratulowa\'e6 Skarbowi Pa\'f1stwa pozyskania w\'f3wczas ponad 5 mld z\'b3 z tej oferty. Bo to chyba by\'b3 ostatni dzwonek\'85
\par Jednak warto zada\'e6 sobie pytanie co teraz? Pod koniec 2014 r. okaza\'b3o si\'ea, \'bfe \'bfadna z naszych \'9cl\'b9skich sp\'f3\'b3ek w\'eaglowych nie jest w stanie przeprowadzi\'e6
 emisji obligacji. Niemniej jednak wtedy jakkolwiek jeszcze prowadzone by\'b3y rozmowy z bankami. Teraz chyba nawet nie ma z kim rozmawia\'e6 (z finansowania projekt\'f3w w\'eaglowych wycofa\'b3 si\'ea np. bank Barclays i masa innych instytucji). Przyk
\'b3adem niech b\'eadzie norweski tzw.}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1045\langfe1045\langfenp1045\insrsid6302573  }{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1045\langfe1045\langfenp1045\insrsid6302573\charrsid6302573 
fundusz naftowy, kt\'f3ry og\'b3osi\'b3, \'bfe wycofuje si\'ea z finansowania inwestycji w\'eaglowych (sprzedaje w Polsce akcje m.in Bogdanki czy PGE) \endash  szczeg\'f3\'b3y tutaj\~}{\rtlch\fcs1 \ab\af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 
\b\f0\fs24\lang1045\langfe1045\langfenp1045\insrsid6302573\charrsid6302573 http://biznesalert.pl/cyglicki-inwestorzy-wycofuja-sie-z-wegla/}{\rtlch\fcs1 \af0\afs24 \ltrch\fcs0 \f0\fs24\lang1045\langfe1045\langfenp1045\insrsid6302573\charrsid6302573 
\par A gdy dodamy tego kolejne rygory dotycz\'b9ce polityki klimatycznej i wieloletnie prognozy cenowe plus brak typowego \'84ssania na w\'eagiel\'94 cho\'e6by ze strony Chin \endash  uk\'b3adanka zaczyna mie\'e6 sens, prawda?
\par Mo\'bfe jeszcze dlatego w\'b3a\'9cnie nikt nie og\'b3osi\'b3 wezwania na JSW? Bo nie wierz\'ea, \'bfe barier\'b9 jest tutaj pakiet kontrolny w r\'eakach Skarbu Pa\'f1stwa. W wolnym obrocie jest niespe\'b3na 45% akcji JSW. My\'9cl\'ea, \'bf
e przy cenie o kilka z\'b3otych wy\'bfszej ni\'bf dzisiejsza wielu zdesperowanych inwestor\'f3w ch\'eatnie pozby\'b3oby si\'ea jastrz\'eabskich papier\'f3w. A Skarb Pa\'f1stwa? No c\'f3\'bf. Przypomnijmy, \'bfe z punktu widzenia bezpiecze\'f1
stwa energetycznego kraju JSW nie ma kompletnie znaczenia strategicznego dlatego, \'bfe g\'b3\'f3wnie produkuje nie w\'eagiel energetyczny, a w\'eagiel koksowy, kt\'f3ry jest baz\'b9 do produkcji stali (czyli docelowo Skarb Pa\'f1stwa m\'f3g\'b3
by spokojnie sprzeda\'e6 swoje udzia\'b3y prywatnemu inwestorowi zw\'b3aszcza, \'bfe nie mia\'b3 takich problem\'f3w z Bogdank\'b9 produkuj\'b9c\'b9 1/4 polskiego w\'eagla dla energetyki\'85). A skoro przy stali jeste\'9cmy \endash  dlaczego nie mia\'b3
by JSW kupi\'e6 ArcelorMittal Poland, dla kt\'f3rego g\'b3\'f3wnym dostawc\'b9 w\'eagla koksowego do baterii w Zdzieszowicach i Krakowie jest w\'b3a\'9cnie JSW? Mo\'bfe liczy na jeszcze wi\'eaksz\'b9 przecen\'ea? A mo\'bfe uwa\'bfa, \'bfe inwestowanie w p
olskie g\'f3rnictwo jest jak gra w rosyjsk\'b9 ruletk\'ea \endash  zawsze mo\'bfesz trafi\'e6 na nab\'f3j, kt\'f3ry jednak Ci\'ea zabije?
\par Takich emocji jak w przypadku wezwania NWR na Bogdank\'ea w 2010 r. raczej si\'ea nie spodziewam, ale naprawd\'ea zastanawia mnie a\'bf tak kosmiczna przecena JSW. Nie zdziwi\'ea si\'ea r\'f3wnie\'bf, gdy odkopany zostanie pomys\'b3 po\'b3\'b9
czenia JSW i KHW. W ko\'f1cu konsolidacja to ostatnio takie modne s\'b3owo\'85
\par Szczerze m\'f3wi\'b9c \endash  nie wiem, co o tym my\'9cle\'e6, bo typowanie czegokolwiek w sektorze w\'eaglowym przypomina mi teraz gr\'ea w totolotka. Prawdopodobie\'f1stwo 100% trafienia jest r\'f3wnie ma\'b3e. Ale czasem mo\'bfna wygra\'e6 \'84tr\'f3
jk\'ea\'94.
\par }\pard \ltrpar\ql \li0\ri0\sa200\sl276\slmult1\widctlpar\wrapdefault\aspalpha\aspnum\faauto\adjustright\rin0\lin0\itap0 {\rtlch\fcs1 \af31507 \ltrch\fcs0 \insrsid14757207 
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